SOME RANDOM MUSINGS; FOR WHATEVER THEY ARE WORTH.

The markets have been on a bit of a wobbly roller-coaster, if I may call it that. The rallies have been there but have been narrow and unpredictable - fizzling away just as quickly as they began, often catching the average retail investor on the wrong foot so to speak. The most common refrain that I have heard in the past 12 months is that 'this is not an investors Market'; it is a Market cut out for nimble footed traders to make their money and move away. There is truth in this. Some people have called it a 'rent - a - ride' Market, loosely meaning that ride the sharp rallies in the beaten down cyclicals , move out at the right time and either park the money in safer Consumption themes or just remain in cash. There is ample truth in this as well.

Be that as it may, even though the indices are or have been in the recent past, close to 20k plus on the SENSEX, there is nary a smile on the average retail investors face; since portfolios continue to be swathed in red, with many retail investors holding Realty, Infra, broken balance sheets infra as I call it., bought at the highs of the last cyclicals' rally that treacherously turned negative in January 2013. The consensus in the last month of 2012 was that the first half of CY 13 would be a blow out positive one followed by a gentler down move in the 2nd half of CY 13. This, as we all know, was not to be. Of course, there are increasingly strident voices now that the 2nd half could see a 10-15% upmove in the markets, which might well happen. Yours truly had also expressed a similar opinion in an earlier Post SEE THIS

The point I am trying to make is that unless we get a correct grip on the macro undercurrents we are unlikely to get the direction of the Market right, and if our basic direction prognosis is wrong all or most of our trades would leave us in the red. Unfortunately, the macro undercurrents are rather confusing, aren't they, leaving most of us to rely on pure intuition borne largely of experience in the Markets. This, of course, can go horribly wrong.!!

Some of the promising stocks in the Consumption theme, even at the current bloated valuations, could be;

1. PROCTER AND GAMBLE, as well as GILLETTE, simply because of the possibility of corporate action and the possible launch of the much touted tooth-paste in India, which could give Gillette a new trajectory. In case the SAT final ruling favours GILLETTE, then P & G could eventually look to delist GILLETTE. Just a thought!
2. GSK CONSUMER AND GSK PHARMA, despite their surreal run up thus far, could be delisting candidates in the medium to long term. This seems very likely.
3. NESTLE moves in spurts, seems to have done its bit for the next six months, but if you are wary of missing out on the future spurty upmove, you could buy now and keep long term. It won't blow the lights out on the upside, but then you won't lose sleep as well.
4. BAJAJ CORP, seems to be the cheapest (relatively),  good quality comsumption story.
5. SPECIALTY RESTAURANTS, could well be the dark horse in the future.
6. JYOTHY LABS, will definitely do better going ahead.
7. AKZO NOBEL, not really a great growth story, but pedigree, possible delisting, dividend, and the relatively sober valuations, invite a serious look.
8. ASIAN PAINTS, buy and forget, don't worry about jerky down moves now and then.
9. BERGER, frankly I am wary, too much trading froth and hype.
10. ITC, the evergreen BUY,  buy and keep.
11. HUL, definitely has done enough in the past two months, but no getting away from the super quality on all parameters. If you are a long haul guy, buy even now and keep.
12. BRITANNIA, untested and  too much hype really, but maybe you could take a chance and park some part of your portfolio in the scrip.
13. EMAMI, consistent performer, has run up, but then all have. Definitely buy and keep.
14. PIDILITE, is a buy on dips.

There are more but gotta go now,  maybe readers could chip in with their ideas as well

And, one more thing, for the long term investors, don't sell your lossy downbeat broken cyclicals in the red, hold on, there are better times for that part of the Markets ahead, maybe later this year or definitely in 2014